Where is office technology heading

What will the office of the future look like?

I began my business career on a manual typewriter. No, it was not that we couldn’t afford an electric typewriter . . . they did not exist! The first electric typewriter I saw was my senior year in high school. I simply could not have even imagined that I would be sitting here in my easy chair with a tablet pc in my hand dictating into my speech recognition software. I must admit that I have no better idea of where office technology is head today than I did in 1960. So I read articles like this one, from Marc Orchant thinking that we cannot even imagine the office of the future with any degree of accuracy, but it is interesting reading anyway. I for one don’t think there will be an office in the next decade we will all do our jobs from anywhere we please (no that I think about it, I do that already).

Say goodbye to the office you know today

Posted by Marc Orchant

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The way we work is in a constant state of flux but the changes taking place today are particularly profound. The work many of us do today is virtually science fiction compared to what our parents knew. We work virtually. We telecommute. We time-shift. We have more computing power in the small device on our hip or in our bag than the behemoths that used to sit on our desks ever provided. We enjoy instant access to a quantity of information that was unimaginable even a generation ago.

When I watch movies like I, Robot or Minority Report with my 14 year-old son it’s obvious that his reaction to the future technology in those stories is utterly different from my reaction to the technology in the original Star Trek series I watched when I was about his age. Back then, the idea of having access to gadgets like the communicator or tricorder was a fantasy. My son looks at Tom Cruise manipulating data objects and accessing services on a virtual display as big as the wall and has a completely different reaction.

Both the kid I was and the kid he is say pretty much the same thing when these visions of the future appear on the screen. “That is sooo cool!” The difference is, he expects he’ll be using that technology a few years from now. And at the rate we’re accelerating, I can’t argue with him.

In a classic case of art imitating life, I see the same fundamental change taking place in our expectations of our work and the tools we use to accomplish it. We are experiencing the literal reinvention of the work We are experiencing the literal reinvention of the workwe do in something very close to real time. Ray Kurzweil offers an interesting perspective on this ever-accelerating rate of change is his new book The Singularity is Near. In a discussion about how we perceive change and how that perception is very different from the objective reality we actually experience, he writes:

“Even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, typically extrapolate the current pace of change over the next ten years or one hundred years to determine their expectations. I describe this way of looking at the future as the intuitive linear view.

But a serious assessment of the history of technology reveals that the technological change is exponential. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example.

Almost everyone I meet has a linear view of the future. That’s why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term.”

Ray is a big thinker, tackling big concepts in this and his previous books. Office Evolution will focus on concepts a bit less lofty but, I think, a whole lot more personal and immediate. The evolving nature of office or knowledge work. The ways, both good and bad, that technology continues to impact our productivity. How our increasing mobility, afforded by ever-more portable technology and time- and place-shifted access to information and people is redefining both the nature of the work we do and how we go about doing it.

So while I will be writing about “office” in the context that probably first came to mind when you saw the title to this blog - the productivity suite from a certain software company in Redmond - there’s a lot more to talk about than that. There are an increasing number of alternatives like OpenOffice, Star Office, and WordPerfect. Apple’s iWork suite gets more interesting with each release. And there’s the emerging Software as a Service (Saas) explosion taking place that Phil Wainewright covers so well here at ZDNet.

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